15 month after Lehman Brothers collapsed many things have changed, more than 130 banks and aslo General Motors once the world´s biggest car builderfiled for bankrupsy filed for bankrupsy. AIG was rescued with 180 billion dollar of the american taxpayer just like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. But for all that the Dow Jones rose by more than 20 percent in 2009, so I ask myself what the year 2010 will bring.

The Dow Jones

The most exciting question is where the Dow will move in 2010. I share the opinion the the Dow Jones will decline in 2010, because there are too many factors which could influence it negatively. First of all the high unemployment rate coupled with rising energy prices will be poison for the tiny recovery. Also the fact that the FED has to get rid of it´s zero interest rate policy one day will influence the markets heavily. So in my opinion there could be two possible scenarios I marked in the chart whereas I favorite the green one. I do that because there is still very much capital which wants to be invested, many people saw the good performance of the Dow in 2009 and believe that this could continue in 2010, so they invest now. But the market is definitely overbought at this moment, not directly overvalued but overbought, so I think we´ll have a pullback at late february or march here.

Euro - USD

The dollar will in my opinion come back to a level  of 1,3 - 1,4 vs. the Euro because of several reasons. The dept level of for example Greece has achieved 295 billion Euro that´s 121 % of the economic performance of this county. Also other counties of the European union are struggling with high dept levels for example Spain, France or Great Britain. Also the economy usually restarts working faster in the USA, which means that the FED will rise the federal funds rate of the quicker than the EZB in Europe.

Gold and Oil

First of all I don´t think the the oil price will go back in an enormous way in 2010. I rather believe that the year 2007 as well as the year 2009 showed us, that we now achieved a point where the global demand of oil rises while supply declines constantly. We call this point peak oil, so in my opinion we will definitely see oil prices of 110 - 130 dollars a barrel in 2010. The only reason why the oil price could decline a bit or in other words could stagnate is because of the come back of the dollar.

On the contrary the gold price has a potential to loose in price, however this depends on when the economy will start working again. If the dollar won´t come back to a level of 1.3 vs the euro and the global economy won´t stabilize we could definitely see prices above 1500 or 2000 dollar per ounce, otherwise we will get back to 600-800 $ per ounce which is my favorite scenario.

The mentioned points above are just a personal of, I hope you understand that I don´t assume responsibility for the correctness of this data.